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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Housing Market Toronto Star September 9, 2010

Canada’s housing market may be slowing down markedly, but it will not go into a “free fall,” says a report by the Conference Board of Canada.
“Canada’s housing market is due for a pause,” Mario Lefebvre, Director for Municipal Studies for the economic think tank, said in the report made public Wednesday.
“In all likelihood, the next few months will not be the best in history for Canada’s resale and new housing markets.”
Lefebvre said there is a likelihood that Canada will see a pause in price growth, “with possible marginal declines in a few markets.”
A new harmonized sales tax in Ontario and British Columbia, lower consumer confidence because of the European debt crisis, and a jobless recovery in the U.S. are having an impact on housing sales in Canada, said the board.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also raised its key overnight lending rate by 25 basis points, as expected, to 1 per cent. It is the third consecutive hike since June, as the era of ultra-cheap money for housing is coming to an end.
“The Canadian housing market has generally been booming for about a decade now and the Conference Board of Canada has long claimed that at one point in time, the market would have to come back to normal levels of activity. This is what’s happening right now,” said Lefebvre.
That slowdown is being reflected in the pace of Canadian building activity. Building permit figures released Wednesday show a 3.3 per cent decline in July over June, to $6.4 billion, according to Statistics Canada.
The result was a decrease in both the residential and non-residential sectors as developers cool their heels during the economic uncertainty.
Despite the dip, Canadian fundamentals remain sound, argues the Conference Board.
“Contrary to the United States, this country’s labour market has rebounded from last year’s recession. Interest rates, while rising slowly, remain low. The market will pause – but it will not nosedive.”
The report says despite large declines in sales over the last several months, existing home prices continue to grow.
“This is because while sales did decline significantly, they are coming off incredibly high levels in most markets - levels that were not sustainable.”
The Conference Board’s report is one several that have come out in the last two weeks assessing the state of the market. Other reports have been much gloomier, forecasting that average house prices are up to 21 per cent too high in Canada.
The Toronto market meanwhile, bucked the national trend in building permits.
Permits were up by 5.4 per cent to $1.05 billion in July over June thanks to confidence in the residential sector. The non-residential sector representing commercial, office and industrial space saw a decline in permits.
“As we continue through the third quarter, we expect residential building permit activity to continue to decelerate,” said Brian Bethune, chief economist for Canada for IHS Global Insight.
“A slowing down of the residential sector will persist primarily in Ontario and British Columbia due to the implementation of the HST.”

Jupiter Dominates The Night Sky!




Mighty Jupiter dominates the sky nearly all night as it makes its best appearance in nearly 50 years for the next few months. October is also a prime time for viewing Uranus, although you'll need binoculars to see it clearly. The seventh planet lies within 2° of Jupiter all month. The eighth planet, Neptune, lies about 30° west of this pair. Closer to home, Venus and Mars lie in evening twilight near Virgo's brightest star, Spica.
 Look south and east just after sunset. You cannot miss the brightest object that you will ever see at night in this region of the sky. With binoculars you will see four of the moons of Jupiter. Through a small telescope you will see the bands and zone markings on the planet. Through a larger telescope you will note that the planet actually buldges at the equator from its fast spin. The south equatorial belt has disappeared within the last few months which has puzzelled Astromoners. Will it reappear? This belt harbours the giant red spot that is still visible nightly. If you notice through a larger instrument a small black dot on the face of Jupiter, this will be one of the four moons shadows cast on the planets gaseous face by our sun as it transits across the planet.